From 'Princeton University Press Blog' a wrap-up of how a group of Davidson College mathematicians approached bracket-forecasting (based on "math modeling") for the March Madness NCAA Tournament:
http://press.princeton.edu/blog/2011/04/12/march-mathness-wrap-up/?sms_ss=twitter&at_xt=4da49fc12f0f177a,0
...I'm fascinated to read that out of 5.9 million entries to ESPN two people actually correctly predicted this year's surprise final four (statistically perhaps it may stand to reason, though still seems amazing to me), but they were not from the math modelers reported on above.
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