"...if it were false, there would be some finite even number that is not the sum of two primes. A finite search could confirm this, making the conjecture 'provably false'! In other words, falsehood of the conjecture is incompatible with unprovability. This contradiction forces us to an ineluctable conclusion: if Goldbach’s Conjecture is unprovable, it must be true!"
“…it’s kind of embarrassing that statisticians are always getting on everybody else’s case for not using random sampling, controlled experimentation, and reliable and valid measurements—but then we don’t use these tools in our own decision making.” -- Andrew Gelman
...from this post on the use of statistics in physics, medicine, social science… and, statistics:
Been another rough week for a lot of U.S. folks (assuming you weren't able to make it to Cancun for a few days of sun-soaked joy), so just a little music to close out the week....
I've said before that it wouldn't surprise me if covid case rates spiked upward after a couple of months of vaccinations because of the increased reckless behavior exhibited by large numbers of people, among other reasons. And in this piece Kaiser Fung covers several of the reasons why people can (and will) still get infected by covid-19 following vaccination:
It may take many months for the full benefit of vaccination programs to begin to appear (and that assumes the efficacy rate is anywhere near what's been touted). People need to remain vigilant and patient... and not be swayed by denialists' focus on every case of infection following vaccination.
Just a li'l obvious numerology for today.... Have QAnon followers yet realized that "Nostradamus," "impeachment," "Donald Trump," "Dead in March," "Ides of March," and even "Nancy Pelosi" ALL contain 11 letters (...no mere coincidence). "Eleven" itself has 6 letters and is the atomic number of "sodium," also with 6 letters... and when 6 is multiplied by 11 (a prime number by the way, IF you know what I mean!) it yields 66, a precursor clearly to 666, sign of the beast! So beware March 15, the very day, incredibly, that H.P. Lovecraft (yet also 11 letters) passed from this planet, and when the Orange Julius may too thus face resurrection! Tremble if you must, and certainly stay tuned... the numbers can't lie (psssst... "Eric Swalwell" extends to 12 letters, OMG!), nor shall the lamb and the lion ever lie down together in this century (and despite misguided wishes, the answer my friend AIN'T blowin' in the friggin' wind). QAnon speaketh, for all who will but listen reverently and take appropriate action. Those who comprehend need no more explanation, and those who do not comprehend... well, misquoth the Raven, never shall. Let the liberal sheeple succumb to their hoax vaccines, while QAnoners resist all such stochastic mind-control attempts and take back control ("Don't tread on ye"). Covid, schmovid!!
In the meantime I leave you with this bit of carefully-coded message, easily translatable by all those in-the-know:
As if there aren't enough things to be bugged about in the world these days, here's another thing I've been grousing about for awhile (does it bug anyone else?):
I drink a fair amount of coffee, and enjoy trying out lots of cheap brands always in the (futile) hope of finding a cheapie I really, really like. Anyways, here’s the part that bugs me… almost always the container recommends using “1 to 2 tbsp. of coffee per 6 oz. of water.” First of all, “1 to 2” tbsp. is a big, 100% difference… even granting variability among consumers can’t they come up with a more precise statement (and then simply say add more or less according to personal taste). But the bigger problem is where the heck does 6 oz. come from??? A standard “cup” is 8 fluid oz. so why isn’t THAT the standard for directions? Anybody have a clue? Moreover, the question is (at least in America) does anyone even drink a “cup” of coffee anymore… most coffee mugs hold more than a standard “cup”…. checking out some of my mugs at home I found they generally held between 10 and 12 oz. of liquid, so hey, instruction-writers come on catch up to reality! (...or maybe I've just had a wee bit toooo much caffeine this morning).
Carry on… (i.e., go back to being concerned about covid, climate change, creeping fascism, and Redditors gaming Wall Street).
Almost 20 years ago I knew a couple of math-wizard brothers who got into day-trading and were hugely successful at it — rare because 95+% of those who attempt it lose their shirts. But rarer still because this dynamic duo had no real prior experience in business, Wall Street, or the stock market whatsoever. What they DID have experience in (and lots of it) was gaming — and what they saw when they took a gander at the stock market one day was just one big mathematical game with little necessary connection to business fundamentals.
I’ve long since been out of contact with them (though I’m sure they’re still successful), but fast forward to today and if you follow Wall Street news at all you know the biggest story going now is GameStop -- the little guys/investors, gathering on Reddit (starting with some gamers) socking it to the big fellas (hedge funds) — and a fascinating David-and-Goliath story (or hive-mind vs. the elites) it is, sure to play out over several weeks if not months to come… I mean a billion dollars here, a billion dollars there, and pretty quickly you’re talking some real money changing hands… and real frazzled nerves (...seriously, won’t be surprised at all to see some suicides result from all of this).
If you already know the GameStop story you can skip this post, ‘cuz it’ll add nothing new to your knowledge, but if you don’t know what I’m talking about (or only vaguely so) well, go ahead and check out the links to bring yourself a little up-to-date (while the story is continuing):
Oh, but if you’re still confused and need a yet simpler version of what-the-heck is happening, well, check out this more basic explanation for clarification (…OK, NOTreally):
Anyway, this whole storyline will no doubt be a great Michael Lewis volume one day in the future, or hey, maybe Cathy O’Neil will tackle it in one form or another.
...meanwhile, past performance is no guarantee of future results. ;)
ADDENDUM:
...and if you still want some more, Slate’s Money Podcast with Felix Salmon did their whole show on the Gamestop story this weekend:
As of 11:49 am. EST we have a new President, and the prior disgraced, FAILED demagogue/traitor and faux “wife” are exiled to Mar-A-Schlago (where the call-girls shall no doubt have quite a $$$ week ahead)... and I feel compelled to yet again post this bit of music:
....may those of us who honestly care about this country, its history and its Constitution, be up to the monumental task ahead.
