Wednesday, August 5, 2020

"Misplaced Confidence" in Statistics


This non-linear scaling is hard to grasp intuitively. It leads people to underestimate just how noisy small samples can be, and hence to conduct studies that lack the statistical power needed to detect an effect….
One thing is clear: conventional training in statistics is insufficient, or even counterproductive, because it might give the user misplaced confidence.”

Dorothy Bishop on cognitive/confirmation bias in stats:

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”  
   — Richard Feynman


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