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Monday, June 15, 2015

Politics-Frolic


Summery stuff is eating up so much of my time these days, not finding as much opportunity for blogging, thus posts dropping off somewhat ("Sunday reflections" are pre-set for the next 6+ months however, so no change in their regularity!).

...So instead a little politics, 'cuz who don't love pontificating on (or in this case, predicting) politics....

No idea who the Democratic presidential nominee will be (too early and sketchy to deduce much there), but the Republican side has never in my lifetime seen such a c-r-r-razy crop of wannabes.

Around 11 Repubs have officially declared for the race, with closer to 20 considered prospective candidates. Given the nature of the Republican base, the workings (and order) of the primary system, the campaign styles of those running, and the fact that the last two Republican moderate nominees went down to defeat, certain conclusions may shake out:

Only 3 candidates strike me as viable for the Party through the primary process (though I won't list the reasons why): Cruz, Rand Paul, and Paul Ryan (who hasn't declared and may not). Walker, Santorum, perhaps Huckabee, are possibles for the VP slot (which could easily go to someone not in the primary run), but I can't fathom a realistic scenario for anyone else making it to the finish line -- some are too moderate, some too baby-faced (not-ready-for-prime-time), some too inexperienced or weak-on-issues, some simply poor campaigners, and others simply too oddball... and several don't have the 'fire-in-the-belly' required to prevail in such a long, knock-down-drag-out competition. But it should certainly be entertaining along the way (...if only in the same manner that race-car crashes are entertaining).

Anyway, in almost 40 years of trying, I've NEVER called a competitive political primary race accurately this early on, so no need to let me know if everything I say above proves false.

....Maybe by Wednesday back to some math!



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