In response to recent news, mathematician John Allen Paulos has tweeted a link to this "old, still relevant piece of mine on privacy, terrorists, and Bayes"…:
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=97755&page=1#.UbM5wOtHlo7
Perhaps, the key sentence:
"....the fact remains that since almost all people are
innocent, the overwhelming majority of the people rounded up using any
set of reasonable criteria will be innocent."
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